Europe

Grexit Polls

Greek Election: Update

The day of reckoning rapidly approaches: on Sunday 25th January the Greek electorate will decide on which party will lead the country at this critical juncture in its history. On the one hand we have an incumbent government that is widely seen as ineffective and prone to corruption, on the other a seemingly promising alternative offered by a young and charismatic politician in the figure of Tsipras. The majority desire some sort of change in terms of domestic politics, but there is a widespread mistrust of the possible implications of Syriza’s policy on seeking to renegotiate the terms of the bailout agreement with Greece’s Troika of lenders. On a similar note, the majority of Greeks wish to remain in the Euro, but there is widespread anger at austerity, especially given the perception that the burden is not being shared in an equitable manner. Tsipras has skilfully exploited these conflicting desires and his populist message promises less austerity, more growth and a material reduction in the national debt thanks to debt forgiveness on the part of Greece’s creditors (not to mention his promise to root out and punish those who have abused their position by putting their own self-interest before the public good). For detached observers, Tsipras’ promise to remain within the Euro whilst also achieving a material reduction in the debt burden simply does not stack up and, were Tsipras to become Prime Minister, a showdown with the Troika and an increased probability of a tail end event coming to pass looks to be inevitable. Matters are exacerbated by the sort of simplistic game theory which is part and parcel of at least the unofficial debate, which runs along the lines of Greece being too systemically significant to be allowed to exit. This sort of talk feeds into Tsipras’ belief that he can push the Troika into making material concessions. Continue reading

Advertisements
Standard
Europe

Mind the GAP

Greek Elections: Update

The decision of Georgios Andreas Papandreou, former Prime Minister of Greece, to launch his own party ahead of the forthcoming Greek general election has added another dimension to what is an already complex situation. Papandreou’s new party, the Movement of Democratic Socialists, looks like it could well achieve the necessary 3% of the vote to gain representation in parliament; in the most recent polls (for Mega TV, To Pontiki, and the poll by Pulse) – all conducted within days of the announcement of the formation of his new party – the Movement of Democratic Socialists looks to have taken 2.5% to 2.7% of the vote. Not bad from a standing start. If Papandreou builds further from here, he could well play a role in any coalition government. Interestingly, Papandreou’s gains appear to have come, firstly and primarily from those voters that had previously classed themselves as ‘undecided’, and secondly from PASOK, his former party (founded, in fact, by his father). The traction with voters who had previously been in the undecided camp suggests that Papandreou may be perceived as a palatable alternative by those who wish to signal dismay with the incumbent government, but who are too worried to vote for Syriza. Continue reading

Standard
Europe

Grexit or Grin?

Greek Elections: Is it Time to Buy or Sell Greek Stocks?

So the Greeks failed to elect a President, triggering a mandatory general election which is to take place on January 25th 2015. Where now?

To begin. Published polls are pretty unanimous in pointing to a Syriza win, albeit with a fairly tight margin. However, in order for Syriza to form a majority government, they need to get a minimum of 37% of the vote – this would give Syriza a parliamentary majority thanks to the automatic award of 50 seats that is given to the first placed party in the polls (technically 40% is required, equivalent to 101 seats out of the available 250 seats that are decided on the basis of proportional representation; however, this tends to be lower, depending on the % of the vote given to parties that don’t achieve representation – i.e., get <3% of the vote). So one scenario is that Syiza wins, but takes < the required 37% of the vote; in this instance, it could not form a parliamentary majority and would have to seek coalition partners. Continue reading

Standard